It was following the cabinet meeting on January 6, 2025, that Turkey’s 70-year-old President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, declared the new year as the “Year of the Family” [Putin did it first in 2024]. The president’s intent in doing so follows the country’s declining birth rate, and according to the country’s president, the decline is an “existential threat to Turkey.” A week later, on January 13, President Erdoğan returned to the discussion, encouraging families to have at least three children — a call he has made before under the mantra, “One [child] means loneliness, two means rivalry, three means balance and four means abundance.”
The record-low 1.51 birth rate (compared with 2.38 in 2001) was first registered and announced in 2023. This is a significantly lower rate than 2.1, which is considered a threshold at which a population maintains equilibrium without shrinking, as per the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data.
Erdoğan also announced a range of financial incentives to encourage families, such as a one-time payment of 5,000 Turkish liras (TL) (USD 141) for the firstborn, a monthly TL 1,500 (USD 42) aid for the second child, a monthly TL 6,500 (USD 182) for the third and a monthly payment of TL 11,500 (USD 323) for the fourth child, as well as low-interest loans for newlyweds. The new incentives only apply to children born on or after January 1, 2025. As such, if a family already had two children prior to this announcement, they would only be eligible for the monthly state assistance of TL 5,000 once they have a third child born on or after January 1, 2025. These incentives will be available until the child turns five. There is no mention of any incentives to support the family at a later stage.
As of January 2025, Turkey’s minimum wage is TL 22,104 (USD 620). In a country marred by the soaring cost of living crisis, the financial stimuli offered by the ruling government per child rings hollow when added to daily living costs. As a result, the reaction to the “Year of the Family” plan has been loud and clear.
“Amid a deepening economic crisis and increasing difficulty in accessing basic needs, emphasizing [that families should have] three children through symbolic gestures like this disregards the struggles of the society,” said Aylin Nazlıaka, vice-president of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), whose portfolio includes overseeing Family and Social Services Ministry policies, in an interview with TurkeyRecap.
“While the inflation rate of minimum wage earners is 80 percent and even the (official) inflation rate is 47 percent, millions of minimum wage earners have been crushed by inflation,” said the leader of the CHP, Özgur Özel. Özel was referring to two different inflation rates, one reported by the state setting inflation at 47.9 percent in November 2024 and one by an independent Turkey Inflation Research Group [ENAG], which set the inflation rate for the same month at 86.76 percent. On January 3, 2025, the state announced inflation rate stood at 44.38 percent, while ENAG said it was 83.40 percent.
Writing on X, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu said, “The government has officially mocked 9 million minimum wage workers and their families — 22,104 liras [USD 621] is not even enough for 1 month’s rent in Istanbul.”
A Turkey-based fact-checking platform, Dogruluk Payi, shared a list of Istanbul districts with average rents, indicating, based on the data, that the new minimum wage would be insufficient to cover the housing costs in most of the districts.
According to the Istanbul Planning Agency, the average cost of living for a family of four living in Istanbul reached TL 75,717 (USD 2,127) as per the November 2024 report. And, according to a December 2024 report by the Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions, the total income required for basic food and goods expenditure per household was TL68,675 (USD1,1930).
Turkey’s adult and working-age populations are not the only ones faced with poverty. According to two recent studies from the think tank the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), “7.03 million children aged 0-17 in Turkey are living in poverty, with 2 million of them facing ‘absolute poverty’.”
The announcement also did not sit well with the women’s rights groups. The Turkish Federation of Women’s Associations called on the government to safeguard women’s rights along with family. In an interview with ANKA News Agency, Canan Güllü, the president of the Federation, said, “It feels wrong to emphasize protecting the concept of family while mechanisms safeguarding women’s right to life are neglected.” The federation recorded 421 femicides in 2024. Güllü added, “We don’t want a government functioning as a marriage bureau. The primary duty of governments is to ensure citizens’ survival, health, and well-being. Ignoring poverty and violations of the right to life while establishing institutes is absurd. Twenty or thirty institutes could be founded daily, but the government must first address the core issues plaguing Turkey.”
Recent attempts to address the nation’s declining birth rate and aging population include a High Council on Population Policies, announced in October 2024 by the Family and Social Services Ministry. In May 2024, the Ministry launched research in cities with the lowest birth rates and highest divorce ratio.
There is a law restricting Caesarean sections and cross-border travel for Turkish couples seeking third-party reproductive assistance. The president, during his earlier years in power, also criticized contraception and compared abortion to murder (a practice liberalized in 1983). According to the president’s previous remarks, women are also not equal to men.
The usual scapegoats
When explaining the causes of the decreasing birth rate, Erdoğan did not mention inflation or the related economic challenges but instead targeted the LGBTQ movement, describing it as “perverse” and “harmful.” He was quoted as saying on January 13, “The primary goal of the gender neutralization policies, in which LGBT is used as a battering ram, is the family and the sanctity of the family institution.” The president also targeted social media and how its consumer-driven content discourages young people from starting a life together. “Television series, shows, and many contents that find their place on digital platforms cause cultural erosion,” said the president.
And yet, according to various studies and research, it isn’t LGBTQ+ movements or social media that are the reasons; inflation and high living costs, however, are. According to Rights-Work Confederation HAK-IS, half of the country’s employed population works for a minimum wage; as such, that is the main income. During the December meetings within the minimum wage commission, the TÜRK-İŞ (Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions) pushed for at least TL 29,583 (USD 842) to account for inflation and potential price hikes. But that amount was never adopted. A previous minimum wage increase was introduced in January 2024, raising the amount to TL17,002 (USD 484).
Where does that leave the government’s financial and other incentives introduced as part of the “Year of the Family”? It is not so difficult to tell. A quick search for baby formula and diapers only on a local e-commerce website totalled a little over TL 1,000 (USD 28) for one box of 800 grams (28 oz) of baby formula and a pack of 210 discount diapers. This leaves TL 500 (USD 14) of the government’s incentive remaining for a household of one baby and two parents when it is calculated that a family needs at least TL 68,675 (USD 1,926) per household to survive for a month, and that is if inflation and price hikes remain at their current levels.
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Previously Published on globalvoices.org with Creative Commons License
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Photo Credit: Image by Arzu Geybullayeva
The post Turkey Celebrates 2025 as the ‘Year of Family,’ Even as Households Struggle With Double-Digit Inflation appeared first on The Good Men Project.